2024 NFL Week 11 Monte Carlo Football
Lamar Jackson MVP campaign rolls on; Raiders & Jags best long-shots?
In this week’s newsletter:
Upset Watch powered by the SSPP Metric: Raiders, Bears, Cowboys, Bengals
Picks & Rating Comparisons for each game.
Positive EV Picks: Jaguars best long-shot pick.
Updated NFL QB EPA metrics. Is Lamar running away with the MVP?
MCSIM & Upset Watch Season Results: It was a great week for Underdogs
Note: Beginning this week, detailed predictions will be posted on the website. View them at the link below.
Upset Watch
This week 4 picks have an SSPP above our 0.25 metric: Raiders (+7 @ Dolphins), Bears (+5 vs Packers), Cowboys (+7.5 vs Texans) and Bengals (+1.5 @ Chargers).
Win & Cover Probabilities
Positive EV Picks
NFL QB EPA
Lamar Jackson continues his MVP-caliber season, while Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels had a down week. Russell Wilson has quietly established himself has a top 10 QB through three games. Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy also had great weeks, while Joe Flacco and Caleb Williams continue to struggle.
MCSIM & Upset Watch Results
Week 10 was a good week for the both overall and upset predictions. The Upset Watch predictions with an SSPP score greater than 0.25 went 5-1!
