QB Report (Week 12) - Monte Carlo Football
Spotlight: Denver rookie Bo Nix
This week I am debuting a new feature: a QB Report that spotlights a different quarterback each week. This week we look at Denver Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix.
This analysis is based on play-by-play statistics via nflfastr with some advanced tracking by FTN. This analysis is based solely on the numbers.
The season started rough for Nix. Five of his first six games generated negative total Expected Points Added (excluding garbage time stats), and Success Rates (percentages of plays with positive EPA) below 40%. The Broncos went 3-3 in their first six games.
The last five games have been a different story for Nix. He has had positive EPA in each of those games. The +20.92 EPA and 57% success rate generated in last week’s blowout over the Falcons is tremendous improvement from his debut performance in Week 1 versus the Seahawks (-19.75 EPA and 15% success rate).
Nix’s Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), which takes into account various factors such as difficulty of throws, has seen an impressive rise over that time. Read more about CPOE here.
Also impressive is the improvement in Third Down Conversion rates through the 11 games. The Broncos have converted 50%+ of Third Downs in each of the last four games.
The Broncos are 3-2 during the last five games, with a blocked Field Goal the difference in a loss to the 9-1 Chiefs.
What can we learn about the cause of Nix’s improvement? I poured over many different statistics, and three specific ones stood out to me: YAC EPA, Playaction Rate, and Out of Pocket Rate.
YAC, or Yards After Catch, EPA has slowly trended up. It’s tricky to say if this is because Nix’s receivers have done a better job gaining yards or if Nix has improved at ball placement (ie hitting receivers in stride).
The Broncos have also increased their rate of Playaction passes in recent weeks. Playaction is generally agreed to be beneficial in opening up the pass game.
Finally, Nix has been forced out of the pocket a bit less as the season has progressed. I looked at the average number of blitzers teams sent at Nix, as well as total pass rushers. These numbers have generally remained steady.
Pro Football Focus grades the Broncos offensive line as the second-best unit in the league (you’ll need a PFF+ subscription to read the full rankings). This, along with Nix’s continued adjustment to the NFL game, is likely the cause of his improving performance.
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