MCSIM & Upset Watch Results

Updated for Week 14 , 2024 Season

Benchmarks

Every system should be measured against a simple benchmark. If the system can’t beat a “no thought” benchmark, then it isn’t performing well. For winners straight up, we will benchmark against picking the favorite to win. Against the spread we will measure against simply picking the home team to cover. Finally, for the Upset Watch we will measure against picking the home underdog to cover.

MCSIM Overall Performance

MCSIM Performance by Week

Upset Watch Performance

“High SSPP” is defined as a score greater than 0.25. The SSPP score represents the difference in chances to cover between the MCSIM pick and a score-based, “what have you done for me lately” system. A positive score means MCSIM gives it more credit than what the public is likely giving.

Upset Watch Performance by Week