2024 NFL Week 11 Preview - Monte Carlo Football
Plus Week 10 Recaps
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Preview predictions are based on an entirely score-based rating system, excluding the Monday Night Game. The complete Monte Carlo Ratings and Sim picks are published on Friday afternoons.
Week 10 Recaps
Trying out something new this week: using AI to recap a selection of the week’s best games in 200 words or less. The original recaps are from ESPN, and the rewrites were done with chatGPT.
Ravens 35 Bengals 34
Lamar Jackson led the Baltimore Ravens to a thrilling comeback, defeating the Cincinnati Bengals 35-34 after overcoming a 14-point third-quarter deficit. Jackson, displaying his playmaking skills, turned a potential 20-yard loss into a 10-yard gain and connected with Rashod Bateman on a leaping touchdown pass to clinch the win. Jackson threw three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter alone, completing 290 yards and four touchdowns overall, while also adding a key 2-point conversion run.
Baltimore’s offense came alive late, racking up 231 of their 389 total yards in the fourth quarter. Despite a standout game from Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase, who caught 11 passes for 264 yards and three touchdowns, Cincinnati couldn't capitalize, missing a critical 2-point conversion attempt in the final seconds.
Coach John Harbaugh praised Jackson as the driving force behind Baltimore's offense. The win marked Baltimore's largest comeback since Jackson’s return from injury, showcasing his impact on the team. Despite injuries to key players like Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens prevailed, highlighting their resilience. Chase's strong performance set an NFL record for most yards against a single opponent in two games, underscoring the intense rivalry between the two teams.
Chiefs 16 Broncos 14
The Kansas City Chiefs extended their winning streak to 15 games with a thrilling 16-14 victory over the Denver Broncos, capped by a dramatic blocked field goal. Linebacker Leo Chenal deflected Wil Lutz's 35-yard attempt as time expired, securing the win for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City with 266 passing yards and a touchdown, while Travis Kelce contributed 64 receiving yards and a score. The Chiefs took the lead on Harrison Butker’s field goal with 5:57 left, but Denver’s final drive set up Lutz’s attempt, only to be thwarted by Chenal’s block.
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix had 215 passing yards and two touchdowns, while Courtland Sutton caught a critical pass that set up Denver's final field goal try. Despite outplaying the Chiefs early, Denver couldn’t close out the game, leaving coach Sean Payton frustrated with the near-miss.
This victory allowed the Chiefs to match their best season start in franchise history, continuing their perfect 9-0 record. The game also featured pop star Taylor Swift’s return to Arrowhead Stadium, where she supported Kelce and the Chiefs.
Steelers 28 Commanders 27
The Pittsburgh Steelers edged out the Washington Commanders 28-27, with Russell Wilson's late-game heroics proving decisive. Wilson, who replaced Justin Fields as starting quarterback, threw his third touchdown of the game with under 2.5 minutes left, connecting with recently acquired Mike Williams on a 32-yard score. This lifted the AFC North-leading Steelers (7-2) to their fourth consecutive win.
Wilson finished with 195 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Despite trailing 24-14, Pittsburgh fought back with contributions from George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, who each scored touchdowns earlier in the game. A critical late defensive stop and a penalty drawn by Wilson’s hard count allowed the Steelers to run out the clock.
Washington (7-3), led by rookie Jayden Daniels, who completed 17 of 34 passes for 202 yards, couldn't maintain their lead despite a strong defensive effort. This loss snapped their undefeated home streak and chances to go 8-2 for the first time since 1986. Though Daniels praised Wilson’s playmaking, small mistakes and missed opportunities ultimately cost Washington the game.
49ers 23 Bucs 20
San Francisco kicker Jake Moody redeemed himself with a 44-yard field goal as time expired, giving the 49ers a 23-20 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite missing three earlier attempts, Moody’s confidence remained intact, and he delivered under pressure. Moody’s winner came after Tampa Bay tied the game late, aided by multiple penalties on the 49ers.
Quarterback Brock Purdy threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns, including a 46-yarder to rookie Ricky Pearsall, marking his first NFL score. Christian McCaffrey also returned, contributing 39 rushing yards and 68 receiving yards.
Emotions ran high on the 49ers’ sideline, with wide receiver Deebo Samuel confronting Moody after one of his misses, though Moody brushed it off as a heat-of-the-moment reaction. Coach Kyle Shanahan downplayed the incident, saying it would be resolved.
Baker Mayfield led the Buccaneers to a tying field goal, finishing with 116 yards and a touchdown, but Tampa Bay ultimately fell short, extending their losing streak to four games. Coach Todd Bowles emphasized the need to finish games as the Bucs’ season struggles continue.
Lions 26 Texans 23
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud expressed frustration after the team's 26-23 loss to the Detroit Lions, despite holding a 16-point halftime lead and forcing five interceptions from Lions QB Jared Goff. The Texans’ offense faltered in the second half, scoring no points, which allowed the Lions to stage a comeback. Stroud took accountability, attributing the loss to the offense’s inability to capitalize on opportunities and secure the win. In the first half, Stroud threw for 164 yards and a touchdown, leading the Texans to 23 points. However, in the second half, his performance declined, with only 68 yards, 39% completion, and two interceptions, one in the end zone.
Coach DeMeco Ryans and players echoed Stroud’s disappointment, acknowledging their failure to maintain offensive pressure. Houston’s defense excelled, creating five turnovers, but the offense couldn’t convert them into points, highlighting a recurring second-half scoring issue for the team. Running back Joe Mixon and tackle Laremy Tunsil emphasized the need for consistency, with Tunsil noting that the team’s tendency to “take the foot off the pedal” in the second half is undermining their season’s aspirations. The Texans remain determined to resolve their struggles as they aim to contend.